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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.