Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned talks on the near four-year conflict in the region have been put on hold.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House without results

The frequently changing meeting is another twist in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.

Reduced Influence

Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump gained from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.

The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in August yielded little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.

The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.

"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.

So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that ending the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

Charles Patel
Charles Patel

Lena is a passionate writer and tech enthusiast based in Berlin, sharing her experiences and insights on modern life.